The unappreciated spillovers of China’s monetary policy

Identifying the transmission mechanisms of global shocks for better business-cycle management in developing countries

As the largest official lender to developing countries, understanding the mechanism of China’s monetary policy spillovers is of primary importance for developing countries. This research goes beyond the usual concerns of US monetary policy and analyses how business investments in other countries react to China’s monetary policy shocks. Equipped with greater knowledge of likely impact of global economic trends, future leaders of developing countries will be better able to cope with challenging domestic economic and financial situations.

EASTERN ASIA

China

The challenge

Developing countries are vulnerable to prevailing trends in the global economy and depend on international financing for infrastructure projects, such as transportation and irrigation, as well as for private business investment. As the largest official lender to developing countries, China is of particular importance and interest in understanding the financing conditions of these countries. Its monetary policy stance is a natural reference point for evaluating development financing in low-income countries. Understanding the real spillovers of its monetary policy is a first-order concern in assessing the impact of international transmission of shocks and business-cycle conditions in developing countries.

The intervention

The research complements existing literature on US monetary policy spillovers. It sheds light on an important source of fluctuations hitherto unappreciated by academics and policymakers. The authors study how business investments in other countries react to China’s monetary policy shocks due to trade and multinational linkages in a global economy characterised by interlinked production networks. Collation of firm-level data on exports/imports and on foreign ownerships allows the researchers to pin down the transmission mechanisms of shocks, suggesting policy implications for business-cycle management

The impact

Understanding the mechanism of China’s monetary policy spillovers is of primary importance for developing countries who depend on international financing. The research goes beyond the usual concerns of US monetary policy and looks at the impact of international monetary policy shocks on development financing in developing countries. Equipped with better knowledge of likely impact of global economic trends, future leaders of developing countries will be better able to cope with challenging domestic economic and financial situations.