Abstract

Abstract

Smartphones have enabled the delivery of life-improving information services to base-of-the-pyramid (BOP) consumers. However, little is known about how the poor interact with the digital world. Through a novel app we developed to investigate real-time smartphone usage, we identify an unnoticed barrier to digital information access by the poor—data shortages. By analyzing over 9.4 million minutes of smartphone usage data from 929 residents of a Mumbai settlement, we find that entertainment consumes 61% of their phone time. Our data reveal that under universally adopted monthly data plans, low-income individuals binge on YouTube and social media, resulting in data shortages and information isolation in the late-plan period. We offer a practical operational solution to this problem—shorter data-replenishment cycles—which serve as a commitment device to curb binge usage. We randomly assign participants to a “capped plan”—with daily data usage caps—or a standard (monthly) plan. Assignment to the capped plan increases late-plan access of invites to health camps sent via WhatsApp, increases attendance at these in-person camps by 27%, and reduces social media binge usage. Most participants (particularly those with low self-control and high fear of missing out) prefer the capped plan, even when costlier—clearly signaling demand. Because capped plans are inherently cheaper to provide, offering them could enable providers to increase BOP customer value and expand access. Our results suggest an opportunity to amplify the impact of life-improving services targeted at the poor by leveraging users’ interactions with smartphone technology.

Abstract

We develop a novel measure of climate policy uncertainty based on newspaper coverage. Our index spikes during key U.S. climate policy events—including presidential announcements on international agreements, congressional debates, and regulatory disputes—and shows a recent upward trend. Using an instrument for plausibly exogenous uncertainty shifts, we find that higher climate policy uncertainty decreases output and emissions while raising commodity and consumer prices, acting as supply
rather than demand shocks. Faced with this trade-off, monetary policy does not accommodate climate policy uncertainty shocks, shaping their transmission. Firm-level analyses show stronger declines in investment and R&D when firms have higher climate change exposure.

Abstract

How do climate policies in developed countries spill over to the developing world? Using a novel dataset that combines multinational firms’ subsidiary locations with spatial emission data, we study how the carbon footprint of multinational firms in Africa changes in response to more stringent climate policies in Europe. Exploiting variation in multinationals’ exposure to carbon prices across European countries, we find that emissions of their African subsidiaries increase as the multinationals’ European operations face higher carbon prices. At the same time, multinationals reduce their domestic investment in Europe while worldwide investment remains unchanged — consistent with the notion that these firms shift some of their operations abroad. We confirm these results at the aggregate level, documenting a significant increase in economic activity and emissions in Africa. Policies to mitigate leakage should thus balance environmental concerns against development and equity considerations.

Abstract

We study how tax policy shapes the cross-border spillovers of U.S. firms’ investments in artificial intelligence (AI). Using data on nearly 2,000 U.S. firms and their 40,000 European subsidiaries, we show that European economies are broadly exposed to U.S. AI investments through different industries and firm types. Within U.S. firms, AI investment comes with growth in their European subsidiaries, especially in countries offering R&D tax incentives and low corporate tax rates. At the industry level, a shift–share design reveals positive spillovers through both U.S.-firm expansion and peer-firm diffusion, strongly shaped by local tax policy. Mechanism tests reveal increases in productivity, R&D, and market expansion among U.S. firms’ European subsidiaries, along with greater AI-related product expansion and labor investment by European peer firms. Our analyses suggest that, unlike capital or other intangible investments, U.S.-originating AI investment drives foreign growth in ways strongly shaped by tax policy. Our findings reveal how tax policy attracts frontier technology investment through multinational firm networks.

Abstract

We study how Russian oligarch-affiliated companies operate globally and respond to sanctions. We construct a dataset tracking 70 companies, 1,800 international subsidiaries, and their institutional investors between 2009 and 2023. These companies maintain extensive networks, especially in tax havens. Difference-in-differences estimates show that the 2014 and 2022 sanctions had limited impact on the companies’ global footprint or access to institutional minority investors. Instead, oligarch companies use more tax haven entities, in particular in jurisdictions offering secrecy, and withdraw from jurisdictions with beneficial ownership disclosure regulation. Our findings highlight how organizational complexity and regulatory arbitrage undermine sanctions, suggesting that globally coordinated transparency regulation is critical for enforcement.